《电力勘测设计》杂志社有限公司

在电力规划研究中，为实现电力资源优化布置，合理规划行业碳达峰路径，需对电动汽车顶峰潜力作准确估计。目前研究中有关预测仅限于城市内微观区域，鲜有对全国各省(区、直辖市)范围的电动汽车顶峰潜力预测。本文提出一种新的预测方法，根据规划期内全国各地区电动汽车参数、用户行为特性、顶峰放电需求进行预测分析，以私家车、公务车、公交车为主体进行午、晚用电高峰顶峰放电功率的计算。2030年全国的初步计算结果与有关政策文件中车网互动提供千万千瓦级调节能力的目标较为相符。基于准确的车网互动参数预测得到的顶峰潜力计算结果，能够为有关能源主管部门优化电源、电网结构布局提供有效参考。

In power planning research,accurate estimation of the discharge capacity of electric vehicles (EVs) is required to optimize the allocation of power resources and to rationally plan the industry's carbon-peaking pathway.Existing research on EV discharge capacity prediction is mostly limited to micro-regions within cities,with few studies covering the provincial or national scale across China.This paper proposes a novel prediction method that evaluates discharge potential during midday and evening load peaks of private cars,official vehicles and electric buses,based on prediction of EV parameters,user behavior characteristics,and Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) demands for each region during the planning period.Preliminary calculations for 2030 align well with policy targets,suggesting that V2G can provide gigawatt-level regulation capacity.The results obtained from accurate V2G parameter predictions could offer valuable insights to energy authorities for optimizing power generation and grid infrastructure planning.